Savings estimates

The €150 billion and €160 billion figures, explained

Two numbers describe how much European businesses could save each year from the European Business Wallet. Both are Commission estimates of a modelled outcome under assumed uptake, not a guaranteed result.

The regulation that would create the European Business Wallet is still moving through the ordinary legislative procedure, and no institution has committed to a date it would take effect. The figures below are estimates of what could happen if it is adopted and used, not a forecast of what will happen.

Two figures, one file

Both figures come from the Commission and describe the same proposal. Neither is "the" number: this page states which is which rather than picking one.

Up to €150 billion a year

Commission press release, 19 November 2025

The figure in the press release announcing the digital package: European Business Wallets could unlock up to €150 billion a year in savings for businesses.[3]

At least €160 billion a year

Commission policy page, Shaping Europe's digital future

The figure on the Commission's own policy page for European Business Wallets: with widespread uptake, annual savings for EU businesses could reach at least €160 billion.[2]

What the figures are

Both figures are Commission estimates of what businesses and public bodies could save if the European Business Wallet is adopted and used, not a guaranteed outcome. They come from modelling the administrative time and cost currently spent on identification, document exchange, compliance checks, record keeping and cross-border coordination, and estimating how much of it would be removed if these interactions moved to a shared digital wallet.[12]

The assumptions and the breakdown

The Commission's supporting staff working document sets its estimate out as a range depending on how many businesses actually adopt and use the Wallet, not as a single number. Public sector bodies are assumed to reach 100% adoption throughout, since the proposal would require them to accept the Wallet.[12]

About 10%: businesses that already trade across borders and use digital tools intensively.
33%: one third of businesses, the threshold used in the Commission's 2021 impact assessment.
50%: half of all businesses.
75%: the Commission's realistic upper-bound target, in line with industry ambition for uptake by 2030.
100%: a theoretical maximum with every business and public body using the Wallet.

At the 75% adoption assumption, the staff working document estimates maximum annual direct benefits of about €169 billion a year, split between about €14 billion for public bodies and about €155 billion for businesses. At 100% adoption, that maximum rises to about €225 billion a year. Neither of these modelled figures is the €150 billion or the €160 billion headline number: those come from the press release and the policy page, not from this breakdown.[12]

The savings are modelled across five categories of administrative activity: identifying and authorising who is acting for a business, exchanging documents and information, compliance and verification, record keeping and data management, and cross-border coordination between authorities.[12]

Why the two figures may differ

The Commission's own documents do not explain why the press release cites €150 billion and the policy page cites at least €160 billion. The supporting staff working document's own modelling produces different numbers again, about €169 billion at 75% adoption and about €225 billion at full adoption, so none of the three sources reconcile with each other. This page states the figures as published rather than picking one or guessing at the difference.